Sunday 29 June 2014

Tigers count the cost of Raiders win

Wests Tigers 19-18 win over the Canberra Raiders last night will come at a cost. The question is just how much it will end up costing the Tigers in the long run? Whilst the win against the Raiders showed plenty of guts and determination against all odds, it's probably fair to suggest that a better side would've put the Tigers in their place.

The Raiders had six sets in succession attacking the Wests goal line in the second half and only rarely looked like seriously threatening to trouble the scorers. In actual fact they looked more of a threat from long range.The Tigers were fortunate to get the win last night but the ramifications of doing so leave the side in a vulnerable postion.

Top of the list is James Tedesco's ruptured patella. Tedesco's lay off couldn't have come at worse time for himself or the club. With Kurtis Rowe out injured and not expected back in the short term the Tigers now need to find a third choice fullback. Long term absentee Tim Moltzen won't be the man either as he continues on his slow road of recovery. Blake Austin filled in there admirably for 80 minutes last night but it's hard to see him getting the gig full time. It wouldn't be fair on him.

The most likely candidates appear to be NSW Cup options Jy Hitchcox or Mitchell Moses. Hitchcox is older at 26 and a speedy/explosive option and probably better suited for the NRL right now. Mitchell Moses on the other hand though at 19 may lack the size or experience of Hitchcox but possesses supreme ball skills and a partnership with halfback Luke Brooks. Potter has the option of opting for either of these potential NRL rookies or electing to show faith in Blake Austin. Previously though Potter has opted against switching players out of position meaning he may well keep Austin on his bench and call up a new player.

Tedesco's absence isn't the only bad news for the club today with Tim Simona set to miss four weeks after damaging his teeth in the head clash which prematurely ended his night. His absence is a little more straight forward in terms of replacements with veteran Keith Lulia the most likely option. However Potter does have the option of calling in rookies Asipeli Fine or Stefano Taukafa as well. This may still happen should winger David Nofoaluma be in any doubt for next weekend's match up versus Penrith.

Another player set to be ruled out is Sauaso Sue who today had scans on an AC joint. Sue who played on bravely with the shoulder injury looks set for a spell on the sideline. Thankfully Wests do have cover for the big man with Sitaleki Akauola, James Gavet and Dene Halatau all likely replacements.

What this all means is that the Wests Tigers will have to tough it out at least for one more week with Captain Robbie Farah and Aaron Woods set to miss the Panthers clash as well due to Origin selection.  It also challenges the Tigers in their quest to make the top 8. The loss of Tedesco is a bitter blow and hopefully Kurtis Rowe will return sooner than later. 

The run home for the club is not a simple one either. Keeping the team healthy was going to be vital. That and the teams finals chances are now in jeopardy but with 6th place belonging to the Tigers on  the NRL ladder currently, the fortunes of the club remain in their own hands. That at least is the good news.

Tuesday 24 June 2014

Round 16 team analysis: V Canberra Raiders

After last weekend's second and final bye week the Wests Tigers return to action this weekend for a clash with the Canberra Raiders, this Saturday night at Campbelltown Stadium. In their last start the Tigers were well beaten by Souths 32-10 in a clash that saw both sides minus their Origin contingent.

Wests have named a strong side for the visit of the Raiders with only Liam Futon (concussion), James Gavet (hamstring), Cory Paterson (finger) and Tim Moltzen (knee) unavailable for selection, whilst Dene Halatau was not named either, most likely due to the effects of his concussion suffered versus Souths.

Much of the talk surrounding the weekend clash with the Raiders will most likely settle on Tigers fullback James Tedesco who only a few weeks back reneged on a deal to join the Raiders from next season. Tedesco's decision to opt against joining the green machine will likely add a bit of extra feeling to this clash, even if the Raiders deny it to be the case.

What should be an even bigger focus though should be the form of the Raiders who appear to have gone backwards this season under "Super coach" Ricky Stuart. They showed rare glimpses of improvement last Friday night in a loss to the Bulldogs and this weekend will have to contend with the scheming of Tigers trio Tedesco, Luke Brooks and Robbie Farah.

With Farah back in the side (along with Aaron Woods) after Origin, the focus of the Raiders likely lessens on Brooks and Tedesco who now play the role of supporting cast. Blake Austin's role off the bench changes too meaning the Tigers go into the game with a raft of attacking options that also include Curtis Sironen who is named for his second start of the season.

In short, those attacking options will most likely determine the difference between the two sides. If Wests attack well, they likely win. There'll likely be some debate over which side of the field centres Chris Lawrence Tim Simona play on too. Some fans believing a switch of sides for the duo may result in a more streamlined attacking structure. Simona currently resides on the opposite side of field to halfback Brooks and there is a feeling that he would do better paired up on the same side, a side Simona has had success with in the past.

The Tigers will also need to match the output of the Raiders forward pack which has plenty of size and ability to offload. Offloads are a real threat, particularly with names like Anthony Milford lurking around them. So win the forward battle and the Tigers likely make life easier for themselves in attack and on the scoreboard. Out wide, Raiders centres Jack Wighton and Jarrod Croker are to be watched with the duo two of their better performers this season. The battle against Wests' Lawrence and Simona should be fast and fleet footed..

All the action this weekend kicks off at 1.15pm with the Holden Cup, NSW Cup follows at 3.10pm with the NRL actions kicking off at 5.30pm.  All at Campbelltown Stadium. Alternately you can catch all the action on Fox Sports 1 from 1pm,

WESTS TIGERS TEAM VERSUS CANBERRA RAIDERS

1. James Tedesco 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Tim Simona 4. Chris Lawrence 5. Pat Richards 6. Braith Anasta 7. Luke Brooks 8. Aaron Woods 9. Robbie Farah 10. Keith Galloway 11. Curtis Sironen 12. Bodene Thompson 13. Adam Blair

Interchange: 14. Sauaso Sue 15. Martin Taupau 16. Blake Austin 17. Ava Seumanufagai

Monday 16 June 2014

Breaking down the run home

11 games remain in 2014 for a Wests Tigers side that currently sits in 8th place on the Telstra Premiership ladder. With 7 wins and 6 losses to date the season appears a mixed bag so far and that's a fair reflection of how we've done to this point. Tipped by many so called 'experts' to finish last with few wins to our name the Tigers have more or less shamed those pre-season predictions with an exciting and tough brand of football.

However it is the post Origin run home that sorts out the contenders from the pretenders. Some teams seem to receive an extra boost with the return to the normality of week to week football. Others seem to struggle as the post Origin blues settle in and bog teams down. For the Tigers they are at least well placed to give themselves their best shot.

ROUND 15 - BYE: The R15 bye ensures the Tigers will move up to 18 pts however the two sides who sandwich Wests on the ladder, Melbourne and Parramatta play each other this weekend. The Storm only need to win by 14 to jump the Tigers, whilst the Eels only need to lose by less than 29 to remain above the Tigers. What it means is the Tigers could fall back to 9th on the ladder.

ROUND 16 - CANBERRA (HOME): R16 sees the the Tigers welcome the Raiders to Campbelltown in a match where James Tedesco will likely be public enemy no.1 for Raiders fans. Thankfully Aaron Woods and Robbie Farah will be well rested from Origin II and you would expect the Tigers will get the points against a Raiders side showing very little bite this season. WIN - 20pts (competition pts)

ROUND 17 - PENRITH (HOME): R17 pits the Tigers up against current NRL leaders Penrith at Leichhardt Oval. The Tigers will likely lose Farah and Woods to Origin III. The Panthers have no Origin reps though and would start a warm favourite despite the Leichhardt factor. The Tigers can win this match up but the Panthers deserve favourtism. LOSS - 20pts

ROUND 18 - MANLY (AWAY): They don't come much more daunting than a Friday night visit to Brookvale. Coming just 2 days after Origin III the Tigers may be hoping the likes of Anthony Watmough and Daly Cherry-Evans pull up lame. A win here would be an upset of major proportions! LOSS - 20pts

ROUND 19 - CANTERBURY (HOME): R19 sees the NRL return to its normal self and the Tigers looking for a much needed win. A third home game in 4 weeks will help against a Bulldogs side who'll likely be needing a win too. A game which could go either way. They say that when in doubt you go with the home side So the Tigers scrape a win here. WIN - 22pts

ROUND 20 - ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (HOME): Wests Tigers finally get their Benji Marshall reunion here. A home game at ANZ ensures we should see a healthy crowd. It should if all goes to plan help the Tigers grab themselves a second consecutive win against a Dragons side who pummeled the Tigers back in R1. WIN - 24pts

ROUND 21 - MELBOURNE (HOME): A few weeks on now from Origin and the Storm should be far more settled here. Cooper Cronk could also be back by now so this represents a tough match up but again another home fixture. I reckon the Tigers cause the upset if the team is healthy. WIN - 26pts

ROUND 22 - NTH QUEENSLAND (AWAY): The trip to Townsville is never easy and you'd expect this to fall on a Saturday night no doubt. The Cowboys deserve favourtism here and whilst we are capable of winning the game, it's one the Cowboys would expect to win. LOSS - 26pts

ROUND 23 - SYDNEY ROOSTERS (HOME): 4 weeks out from the finals and a match up with the Roosters looks a real challenge. We've never fared well against them in recent seasons and you'd expect it to be no different here. Best put as one where we bottle the experience and use it to our advantage in the future. LOSS - 26pts

ROUND 24 - CANTERBURY (AWAY): For the second time in close to a month the two sides will meet. A lot will depend on the health of the two sides. A lot may also depend on how well the likes of Tedesco, Brooks and the other young guns are faring form wise as the season reaches the final straight. Certainly a winnable match up but by no means a clear match up for either side. I reckon the Doggies may just scrape this one. LOSS - 26pts

ROUND 25 - CANBERRA (AWAY): The Tigers find themselves in a must win encounter in the nation's capital here. For that fact the Tigers grab the win on the back of too much attacking potential. Basically backing up James Tedesco's decision to stay put. WIN - 28pts

ROUND 26 - CRONULLA (HOME): The final premiership round sees the Tigers host the mob from the shire. By now the Sharks are playing for pride and rarely does that count for much by R26. At home the Tigers take advantage of that fact and get the job done. WIN - 30pts


OVERALL: WINS 13, LOSSES 11

I have us finishing on 30pts which would see us finishing in 10th place on the ladder. For and against sees us relegated to 10th despite finishing on the same points as 8th place. From what i forecast i think the Tigers really need to perform well at home. It's our best chance of finishing higher up. 7/11 remaining games are home game and if we were to in fact win all 7 that would ensure a top 8 finish. 

The stumbling blocks for Wests appear to be Penrith (H) due to Origin III, Manly (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (H), whilst it's a toss of the coin in fixtures against the Bulldogs (x2) and Melbourne (H). Certainly we need to pick up wins in fixtures that represent winnable matches for us with Canberra (X2), Dragons (H) and the Sharks (H). Those 8pts are real valuable with the run home that we do have.

Ultimately i feel a lot of our fortune will rest on just how the team comes together. If we keep key players fit and the development of James Tedesco and Luke Brooks in tandem with Robbie Farah continues to shine then some of these losses could turn into wins. By the same token though, some of these wins could also be losses if our form suffers. 

The key fixtures for me are the two Bulldogs clashes and match ups with the Storm and Panthers. We can win all four games but we could lose all four as well. For me our season could well be defined by our success in those four matches.



Ladder Pos P W D L B PF PA PTS
1. Roosters 24 18 0 6 2 623 365 40
2. S Eagles 24 18 0 6 2 529 398 40
3. Rabbitohs 24 16 0 8 2 587 369 36
4. Storm         24 16 0 8 2 548 490 36
5. Panthers 24 15 0 9 2 521 416 34
6. Warriors 24 14 0 10 2 562 497 32
7. Bulldogs 24 14 0 10 2 463 427 32
8. Broncos 24 13 0 11 2 531 448 30
9. Eels         24  13  0 11 2 521 511 30
10. W Tigers 24 13 0 11 2 505 522 30
11. Cowboys 24 12 0 12 2 504 419 28
12. Titans 24 9 0 15 2 383 540 22
13. Dragons 24 8 0 16 2 427 543 20
14. Sharks 24 5 0 19 2 301 632 14
15. Knights 24 4 0 20 2 368 558 12

16. Raiders 24 4 0 20 2 408 646 12

(via nrl.com ladder predictor)

Tuesday 10 June 2014

Concerns loom for Fulton

Liam Fulton's latest concussion, versus the Knights last Sunday, has the league world questioning the second rower's long term future in the game. Fulton suffered a fourth concussion of the season as a result of stray elbow from Knights forward David Fa'alogo. Fulton failed to train with Wests Tigers on Tuesday and therefore was not considered for selection by coach Mick Potter.

At this stage Fulton is only set to miss this weeks clash with South Sydney, however the Tigers also have a bye in Round 15 which means Fulton will get two weeks worth of rest. That though could be taken out of his hands with his long term future set to come under scrutiny. Some have suggested Fulton should perhaps take an enforced long term lay off, possibly as long as the rest of the season.

Wests' CEO Grant Mayer admits a longer lay off is a possibility as the club looks to the best interests of Fulton's health, saying "We’re committed to ensuring he has the best treatment possible and if he was to suffer another similar injury he may have to look at an extended period on the sideline.”

Beyond though, more serious questions loom. With Sports such as the NRL now taking more seriously the effects of head trauma injuries, there are concerns that Fulton's long term future may be decided by doctors. It is now sadly a case of 'watch this space'.

Round 14 team analysis: V South Sydney

After an yet another gritty win on the weekend over the Newcastle Knights the Wests Tigers will be looking for more of the same formula when they tackle rivals South Sydney this Friday night. The Tigers weren't always impressive but still found a way to grab a much deserved win over the Knights at Hunter Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Led by Luke Brooks, Robbie Farah, James Tedesco and Aaron Woods, Wests simply got the job done on Sunday and it's that formula that will be needed as Souths look to avenge their round 3 defeat at the hands of the Tigers. Wests will be missing Farah and Woods who are Origin II bound, whilst Liam Fulton is missing yet again with concussion.

Into the side come Joel Luani, Dene Halatau and Ava Seumanufagai, whilst Keith Lulia and Sitaleki Akauola are added on an extended bench. The final make up of the side for Friday night could go a couple of ways. The most likely formula should see Akauola and and Lulia drop off the bench. However Braith Anasta could well be a doubt after sustaining a shoulder injury on Sunday. If Anasta is unable to play then Blake Austin would move to five eighth with Dene Halatau sharing the hooking duties with Joel Luani. Halatau could still feature as a backrow option should Anasta suit up on Friday night.

Curtis Sironen moves into the starting line up this week and will be hoping for a little more good fortune after last weekend's return was ruined by an early concussion. Ironically he'll replace Liam Fulton who unfortunately has been hit with yet another concussion and will miss at least this week's match up.

For the Tigers, the key to success this week will again be matching the Burgess brothers. Whilst the loss of Farah and Woods is a blow to this objective, the Bunnies will be missing Ben Te'o and Chris McQueen from their forward pack. They'll also do without Greg Inglis. That trio all Origin bound as well. In a further blow for Souths, in form youngster Dylan Walker misses the clash with injury,

The key to this game will be the playmakers. Both forward packs look to be well matched so the presence of John Sutton, Adam Reynolds and Issac Luke gives the Bunnies a distinct advantage. Wests will rely heavily on the influence of Luke Brooks and James Tedesco, whilst Curtis Sironen will hope to cause trouble on the edges,

Souths appear to have the edge this week but the Tigers have made a point of upstaging more fancied opposition this season and for that i'll give us a good shot.


Wednesday 4 June 2014

Teddy U-turn raises serious questions

So it's official!! James Tedesco will stay a Wests Tiger afterall! In news that will polarize opinions, Tedesco last night officially backed out of his deal with the Raiders, citing he never felt comfortable with the deal signed for 2015 and beyond.

There's no doubt that James Tedesco's sensational U-turn decision in deciding to stay at Wests Tigers caught everyone off guard. Barely a week ago the 21 year old fullback had himself a hefty 3 year deal down at Canberra, however it appears his heart and mind have countered back at him over the past 7 days as the realization of what he was getting in to dawned on him.

The news is brilliant for Wests Tigers and their fans who'll now keep the highly rated fullback on their books for at least the next few years. Full disclosure of the deal with the Tigers will be worked out in the coming days but it's believed to be the 4 year deal discussed previously.

Whilst the news is brilliant for the Tigers, it's obviously a very different emotion for the Canberra Raiders who had every reason to believe it was done and dusted - that they had their man! There's little doubt that it is unfair on the Raiders, but the rules have been adhered to. Ironically it was the Raiders in the opposite position barely 12 months back when Josh Papaali performed his U-turn and decided to stay at the Raiders and abandon plans to move to Parramatta.

It all begs the question though. Is this the way the NRL and its players should be conducting business?? How is it that a player can sign his future away and then within a "cooling off" period decide to back out? It's not so much that the process should be thrown out the window and that the contract signed should be honoured. It's more the process of how it's dealt with.

Surely a better way to conduct business would be for both club and player to keep quiet during this part of the process and announce nothing and allow the cooling off period to take its path without the controversy. The Raiders club are not the losers here. They know the rules. They know there is a chance this could happen. The only losers are the Raiders fans who see Tedesco trumped as their own player all whilst the possibility exists that it's not 100% a sure thing to happen.

So the cooling off period is one area to lay the blame at. Another would be the player manager. To call this a murky area would be an understatement. In the case of James Tedesco, James admitted he was never comfortable with the contract signed. Now surely Sam Ayoub (Tedesco's manager) should've noticed this! Throughout the whole process he must surely have known that Tedesco's heart was with the Tigers. He must surely have gotten the vibe that it was never about the money and that James only wanted to be happy playing his football? So why push forward with the Raiders deal? Those same questions also hold James fully responsible for this mess too. He doesn't get away with this.

Some will accuse Ayoub of trying to reward himself with a bigger slice of pie (the manager's cut of the negotiated deal) and perhaps there's some truth to it. However the biggest red flag flying over the way contracts are negotiated these days appears to be in regards to some (not all) player managers. In the case of Tedesco, Canberra's offer was well above his market value, Ayoub knew this and whilst some 'concern' was probabaly shown for his client's welfare, it appears Ayoub only had one destination in mind for Tedesco the whole time.

It's disappointing.........

The NRL seriously needs to look at the whole process more thoroughly than they are. What occurred throughout this process was not in anyone's best interests. The end result is a club who feels victimized and cheated on and a player who's gone through the ringer when he didn't need to. In my opinion the role of the NRL player manager needs to be scrutinized heavily in this case. Here, Tedesco's best interests were clearly not looked after. 

Wests Tigers may've kept Tedesco in the end but who really won here??  The Raiders didn't. Neither did Tedesco. Certainly it wasn't Ayoub who won. Rugby League wasn't the winner either. Wests Tigers were the only party who did win here and even then it's a bad look for the club and the game in general.

The NRL MUST sort this out!




Tuesday 3 June 2014

Round 13 team analysis: V Newcastle Knights

After a week off due to the bye week the Wests Tigers return to action this Sunday afternoon when they head north for the Hunter.....well Hunter Stadium anyways, where they'll tackle the Newcastle Knights in Round 13 action.

The bye week came at a good time after Wests failed to fire in their last start versus the Broncos, going down 16-14 at Campbelltown. The break also gave Robbie Farah and Aaron Woods a breather after a frenetic Origin 1 encounter a week ago. They both return a little fresher this week and the Tigers will be  boosted by the returns of James Tedesco, Liam Fulton and Curtis Sironen on top of the NSW duo.

James Tedesco in particular will be a welcome addition with his undoubted quality sorely missed in his absence. Coupled with Robbie Farah's return, alongside Luke Brooks, our attack should be markedly improved this week. The addition of Liam Fulton and Curtis Sironen (18th man) also provides the side with two ball playing back rowers, a further boost for our attack.

Interestingly Blake Austin is included on the bench but does shape as the most likely man to drop off. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Austin run out a day earlier for the NSW Cup side, where he could still act as 18th man for the NRL side a day later.

The Tigers make the trek to Hunter Stadium where they'll face a Knights side who have had their issues. Press reports suggest more than a few players are in doubt including Akuila Uate and Beau Scott. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see a rejigged Knights out fit run out on Sunday afternoon.

The key for the Tigers is the return of Robbie Farah who'll provide the injection of direction where it matters, the spine of the side with Tedesco and Farah alongside Brooks appears a test for the Knights. Our forwards continue to play with confidence too and i'm expecting a good showing from the 17 that run out this weekend.

It's also worth noting that Tigers will provide their strongest side in 2 seasons this weekend with only Tim Moltzen officially unavailable. Forwards Cory Paterson and James Gavet were not named in any grade this weekend but were given the luxury off another week off as a precaution. Dene Halatau whilst missing from the first grade side will play his second consecutive game in the NSW Cup as he looks to build some match fitness up.

First grade action kicks off at 2pm on Sunday afternoon with the NYC clash also LIVE on FOX SPORTS prior to the main game at 11:30am.

WESTS TIGERS TEAM V NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

 James Tedesco, David Nofoaluma, Tim Simona, Chris Lawrence, Pat Richards, Braith Anasta, Luke Brooks, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah, Keith Galloway, Liam Fulton, Bodene Thompson, Adam Blair. Interchange: Sauaso Sue, Martin Taupau, Blake Austin, Ava Seumanufagai, Curtis Sironen