11 games remain in 2014 for a Wests Tigers side that currently sits in 8th place on the Telstra Premiership ladder. With 7 wins and 6 losses to date the season appears a mixed bag so far and that's a fair reflection of how we've done to this point. Tipped by many so called 'experts' to finish last with few wins to our name the Tigers have more or less shamed those pre-season predictions with an exciting and tough brand of football.
However it is the post Origin run home that sorts out the contenders from the pretenders. Some teams seem to receive an extra boost with the return to the normality of week to week football. Others seem to struggle as the post Origin blues settle in and bog teams down. For the Tigers they are at least well placed to give themselves their best shot.
ROUND 15 - BYE: The R15 bye ensures the Tigers will move up to 18 pts however the two sides who sandwich Wests on the ladder, Melbourne and Parramatta play each other this weekend. The Storm only need to win by 14 to jump the Tigers, whilst the Eels only need to lose by less than 29 to remain above the Tigers. What it means is the Tigers could fall back to 9th on the ladder.
ROUND 16 - CANBERRA (HOME): R16 sees the the Tigers welcome the Raiders to Campbelltown in a match where James Tedesco will likely be public enemy no.1 for Raiders fans. Thankfully Aaron Woods and Robbie Farah will be well rested from Origin II and you would expect the Tigers will get the points against a Raiders side showing very little bite this season. WIN - 20pts (competition pts)
ROUND 17 - PENRITH (HOME): R17 pits the Tigers up against current NRL leaders Penrith at Leichhardt Oval. The Tigers will likely lose Farah and Woods to Origin III. The Panthers have no Origin reps though and would start a warm favourite despite the Leichhardt factor. The Tigers can win this match up but the Panthers deserve favourtism. LOSS - 20pts
ROUND 18 - MANLY (AWAY): They don't come much more daunting than a Friday night visit to Brookvale. Coming just 2 days after Origin III the Tigers may be hoping the likes of Anthony Watmough and Daly Cherry-Evans pull up lame. A win here would be an upset of major proportions! LOSS - 20pts
ROUND 19 - CANTERBURY (HOME): R19 sees the NRL return to its normal self and the Tigers looking for a much needed win. A third home game in 4 weeks will help against a Bulldogs side who'll likely be needing a win too. A game which could go either way. They say that when in doubt you go with the home side So the Tigers scrape a win here. WIN - 22pts
ROUND 20 - ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (HOME): Wests Tigers finally get their Benji Marshall reunion here. A home game at ANZ ensures we should see a healthy crowd. It should if all goes to plan help the Tigers grab themselves a second consecutive win against a Dragons side who pummeled the Tigers back in R1. WIN - 24pts
ROUND 21 - MELBOURNE (HOME): A few weeks on now from Origin and the Storm should be far more settled here. Cooper Cronk could also be back by now so this represents a tough match up but again another home fixture. I reckon the Tigers cause the upset if the team is healthy. WIN - 26pts
ROUND 22 - NTH QUEENSLAND (AWAY): The trip to Townsville is never easy and you'd expect this to fall on a Saturday night no doubt. The Cowboys deserve favourtism here and whilst we are capable of winning the game, it's one the Cowboys would expect to win. LOSS - 26pts
ROUND 23 - SYDNEY ROOSTERS (HOME): 4 weeks out from the finals and a match up with the Roosters looks a real challenge. We've never fared well against them in recent seasons and you'd expect it to be no different here. Best put as one where we bottle the experience and use it to our advantage in the future. LOSS - 26pts
ROUND 24 - CANTERBURY (AWAY): For the second time in close to a month the two sides will meet. A lot will depend on the health of the two sides. A lot may also depend on how well the likes of Tedesco, Brooks and the other young guns are faring form wise as the season reaches the final straight. Certainly a winnable match up but by no means a clear match up for either side. I reckon the Doggies may just scrape this one. LOSS - 26pts
ROUND 25 - CANBERRA (AWAY): The Tigers find themselves in a must win encounter in the nation's capital here. For that fact the Tigers grab the win on the back of too much attacking potential. Basically backing up James Tedesco's decision to stay put. WIN - 28pts
ROUND 26 - CRONULLA (HOME): The final premiership round sees the Tigers host the mob from the shire. By now the Sharks are playing for pride and rarely does that count for much by R26. At home the Tigers take advantage of that fact and get the job done. WIN - 30pts
OVERALL: WINS 13, LOSSES 11
I have us finishing on 30pts which would see us finishing in 10th place on the ladder. For and against sees us relegated to 10th despite finishing on the same points as 8th place. From what i forecast i think the Tigers really need to perform well at home. It's our best chance of finishing higher up. 7/11 remaining games are home game and if we were to in fact win all 7 that would ensure a top 8 finish.
The stumbling blocks for Wests appear to be Penrith (H) due to Origin III, Manly (A), Cowboys (A), Roosters (H), whilst it's a toss of the coin in fixtures against the Bulldogs (x2) and Melbourne (H). Certainly we need to pick up wins in fixtures that represent winnable matches for us with Canberra (X2), Dragons (H) and the Sharks (H). Those 8pts are real valuable with the run home that we do have.
Ultimately i feel a lot of our fortune will rest on just how the team comes together. If we keep key players fit and the development of James Tedesco and Luke Brooks in tandem with Robbie Farah continues to shine then some of these losses could turn into wins. By the same token though, some of these wins could also be losses if our form suffers.
The key fixtures for me are the two Bulldogs clashes and match ups with the Storm and Panthers. We can win all four games but we could lose all four as well. For me our season could well be defined by our success in those four matches.
Ladder Pos P W D L B PF PA PTS
1. Roosters 24 18 0 6 2 623 365 40
2. S Eagles 24 18 0 6 2 529 398 40
3. Rabbitohs 24 16 0 8 2 587 369 36
4. Storm 24 16 0 8 2 548 490 36
5. Panthers 24 15 0 9 2 521 416 34
6. Warriors 24 14 0 10 2 562 497 32
7. Bulldogs 24 14 0 10 2 463 427 32
8. Broncos 24 13 0 11 2 531 448 30
9. Eels 24 13 0 11 2 521 511 30
10. W Tigers 24 13 0 11 2 505 522 30
11. Cowboys 24 12 0 12 2 504 419 28
12. Titans 24 9 0 15 2 383 540 22
13. Dragons 24 8 0 16 2 427 543 20
14. Sharks 24 5 0 19 2 301 632 14
15. Knights 24 4 0 20 2 368 558 12
16. Raiders 24 4 0 20 2 408 646 12
(via nrl.com ladder predictor)
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